The Outlook for 2013Posted on December 21, 2012
What should we be holding? What areas look good and not so good?
The latest issue of the Economist continues to talk about reducing investment costs and how hedge funds overcharge for no discernable benefit. It is also
something we’ve written on before. Get with the program. Sell your overcharging mutual funds and put your investments into index funds that are exchange traded. Paying less that will actually make you money.
Second – China, Shanghai market could be back
We have also written about this before, but it bears repeating. In fact, further evidence has been even more encouraging. Witness Xi Jinping’s first trip: a southern tour to mimic Deng Xiaoping. It could not have been clearer in demonstrating his reformist instinct in stark contrast to Hu Jintao’s homage to Mao. Further reforms and opening of the financial industry and stock market to foreigners will be the biggest boost for the market in years.
Make sure you get your “A” share market and not US listing of Chinese companies and get in now. You will need to look hard elsewhere for China “A” share market exposure, or just talk to us.
Third – Emerging Markets in general, particularly BRICs.
Once the fiscal cliff is out the way the immediate dark clouds will be minimal and the low interest rates globally will push money into “risk” assets globally. We think it is worth considering an emerging market mutual fund exchange traded fund like iShares MSCI Emerging Market Index ETF (EEM) or SPDR S&P BRIC 40 (BIK) to get access to these areas. BRIC fund indexes have relatively underperformed the wider emerging market index of late so might represent better value.
Fourth – Property with a good yield
As confidence returns to both borrowers and lenders more people will chase yield to more adventurous places. It is too early to worry about a bubble just yet, given low asset property asset prices, particularly in the US. This time of the cycle is where confidence will return and low interest rates and yields of 6-9% start to see a lot of demand, pushing the first round of price rises. It might run for a couple of years but the earlier investors see the gains. See us to get access to the right commercial property opportunities with a 6-8% yield.
Fifth – Quick Ideas
- US house prices will continue to trend up on low mortgage costs.
- Bank of America which is selling at around half book value.
- Dow Corning putting its on Gorilla Glass on every Apple product (and smartphone).
- Sugar at a 2 year cyclical low price point.
- Ford with falling debt a cheap PE ratio of 6.5.
- Monsanto which will benefit from rising crop plantings.
Thanks for everyone’s support this year. Have a great break and best of luck in 2013.
*It is the easiest of bets to make. Not only is it 100% likely the world will continue. If we are wrong, how can anyone possibly collect their prize?
About Caterer Goodman Partners
Caterer Goodman Partners is a Shanghai based wealth management firm established with a clear vision to provide a new level of personalized financial planning services for expatriates in Asia. Our financial advisors provide guidance for our clients in all areas of investment, specialising in managed accounts, money-market funds, retirement planning and alternative investments. At Caterer Goodman Partners, we offer our advice and experience to provide low cost, tax-effective and simple solutions to match our clients’ interests.
About Owen Caterer
Since graduation Mr Owen Caterer has worked with the Queensland Premier's Department in Trade Facilitation and then as a financial adviser in Shanghai from 2005 until 2010. He then rose to Senior Adviser, then Business Development manager and then to Chief Investment Officer responsible for portfolios to a value of US$280 million across Asia. Following that Mr Caterer left to found his own firm with a partner in the financial advisory and wealth management area. This focused on developing China and Asia's first fee-based financial advisory (rather than commission-based). This has grown to now have 8 staff and and managing almost US$35 million for clients throughout Asia. This business success was recognized as a finalist in the 2013 ACBA in the Start Up Enterprises category and are one of a small number of foreign managed firms to have a full asset management license in China. Owen has also been active in the community volunteering for the Australian Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai and acting as the Vice-Chair of the Small Business Working Group (2012-2014) and as the Co-Deputy Chair of the Financial Services since 2013 until the present. They have continued to grow their business and have now been selected as a small group of companies who are platinum members of the Australian chamber of commerce. The achievement they are most proud of is their efforts to reform the financial planning industry in China and push it away from a hard-sales commission driven model to a more ethical management fee and long term customer service model. Owen has a Graduate Diploma of Applied Finance from the Securities Institute of Australia of which he was a member as a Fellow of Finance for many years and also has an undergraduate degree from Griffith University in International Business. Owen's interests are tennis, running and his wife and two children. He speaks fluent Chinese, first arriving in China in 1997.
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Categorised in: Economic Commentary